Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
