Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
